New USCIS Data Shows a Two‑Speed EB‑5 Queue

What USCIS disclosed

In September 2026, the American Immigrant Investor Alliance published data obtained from USCIS through a Freedom of Information Act request. The disclosure covers I‑526 and I‑526E petitions filed from April 1, 2022 through May 31, 2026 and separates receipts and decisions by filing month, country of chargeability and EB‑5 category.

This is more useful than a single published processing-time number. It shows which parts of the queue USCIS has actually been moving, how much of each category has received a decision, and how many earlier cases remain pending.

Where post‑RIA investors filed

The filing population was divided almost evenly between rural and high-unemployment projects. Rural moved slightly ahead by May 2026, while a smaller group was reported as combined, unreserved or unknown.

Rural and high-unemployment cases are moving at different speeds

USCIS had decided 56% of the rural petitions reflected in the disclosure, compared with only 20% of high-unemployment filings. Rural accounted for 5,201 decisions; high unemployment accounted for 1,690.

The pattern confirms a strong rural processing preference. Independent analysis of the underlying filing months suggests that rural adjudications were roughly two filing years ahead of high-unemployment adjudications overall. But USCIS was not processing every petition in strict first-in, first-out order: some recent cases had decisions while older cases were still pending.

Approval rates also differed

Among cases decided through May 2026, approximately 92% of rural decisions were approvals, compared with about 80% for high-unemployment cases. The combined approval rate was approximately 88%.

Category alone does not explain every decision. Project eligibility, source-of-funds evidence, documentation quality, filing date and the mix of cases being reviewed may all affect the results. A higher historical approval rate is useful context, not a substitute for individual and project due diligence.

Petition processing time is not the same as the green-card wait

Form I‑526E approval is only the first major government stage. An investor must also have an available visa and complete adjustment of status or consular processing. Country of chargeability, family size, annual category limits and government visa issuance all affect the second stage.

For investors born in India or China, current data points to meaningful backlog risk across the post‑RIA categories. For investors chargeable to other countries, timing may depend more heavily on government petition review and visa-processing capacity. A Visa Bulletin category shown as “current” today does not guarantee that it will remain current when a newly filed petition is approved.

What this means for a prospective investor

• Rural has a demonstrated processing advantage. The preference is visible in actual decisions, not merely in policy language.
• Speed is only one part of project selection. Immigration eligibility, job creation, construction progress, capital structure, security and repayment risk still require careful review.
• High-unemployment cases are moving, but more slowly. Recent processing improved, yet the cumulative gap remains substantial.
• Do not rely on a universal “two- or three-year” promise. Petition timing and visa availability are separate, variable queues.
• Families with children nearing age 21 need individualized advice. Filing date, visa availability and Child Status Protection Act rules can become decisive.